As Sudan’s war enters its third year, the country faces one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes. Tens of thousands have been killed, more than 13 million displaced within and beyond Sudan’s borders, and vast swaths of infrastructure reduced to rubble. According to the United Nations and the African Union, the crisis is not merely humanitarian — it is a political and moral collapse rooted in decades of impunity, militarization, and manipulation by political elites.
From Darfur to the Revolution: Seeds of Conflict
The origins of Sudan’s current tragedy trace back to the Darfur war, where ethnic cleansing and mass atrocities exposed the brutal machinery of the Islamist state. At that time, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, then commander of the army’s infantry division in Darfur, played a notable role in organizing and training the Janjaweed militias — later rebranded as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under the command of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti).
When the 2019 popular revolution overthrew Omar al-Bashir’s Islamist regime, both Burhan and Hemedti sided opportunistically with the revolution. They presented themselves as protectors of the people while simultaneously consolidating their grip on power through the Transitional Sovereignty Council — a fragile power-sharing arrangement with the civilian coalition known as the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC). This uneasy alliance planted the seeds for Sudan’s next great betrayal.
The Khartoum Massacre: The First Betrayal
In June 2019, security forces — including the army and RSF — carried out a brutal assault on peaceful protestors camped outside army headquarters in Khartoum. Hundreds were killed, women were raped, and the revolution’s moral compass was shattered. Though Burhan and Hemedti denied direct involvement and ordered opaque “investigations,” no justice ever followed. The massacre marked the first major rupture between Sudan’s military rulers and the revolution that brought them to power.
The Fall of the Civilian Government
Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s transitional government brought cautious optimism, rebuilding international relations and pursuing economic stabilization. Yet remnants of the Islamist deep state, aided by Burhan and Hemedti, actively undermined civilian authority. On October 25, 2021, Burhan staged a coup, dissolving the transitional institutions and detaining civilian leaders. The move reignited nationwide protests and international condemnation, with the African Union suspending Sudan’s membership and Western governments refusing to recognize the military takeover.
The Descent into War
Two years later, tensions between Burhan and Hemedti exploded into open warfare. Their dispute over the “Framework Agreement” — which called for the army’s withdrawal from politics and integration of the RSF into the armed forces — exposed deeper rivalries over power and survival. On April 15, 2023, fighting erupted in Khartoum, spreading rapidly across states. The war has since devastated major cities, triggered famine-like conditions, and displaced millions. Both sides blame each other for external alignments and war crimes, while public trust in both factions has almost entirely evaporated.
A Civilian Movement in Exile and Disarray
The war forced much of the civilian leadership into exile. Once symbols of hope, many FFC figures alienated their supporters by engaging in dialogues and alliances with one of the warring parties — particularly the RSF. Photographs of former Prime Minister Hamdok meeting Hemedti in Nairobi enraged the Sudanese public, deepening perceptions of elitism and detachment. Internal divisions, often along regional or tribal lines, further eroded their credibility. Today, civilian politics survives largely as a nominal external enterprise, disconnected from the realities of Sudan’s suffering population.
The Islamists’ Return from the Shadows
Meanwhile, Islamists and loyalists of the former regime — driven by fear of accountability and loss of influence — have reemerged as pivotal players in fueling the conflict. Though the army denies their presence, evidence increasingly points to their influence in decision-making circles and their role in mobilizing paramilitary recruits. Their alignment with Burhan’s forces is less ideological than existential: peace would likely mean trials for corruption, genocide, and crimes against humanity. For them, perpetual war is a form of political survival.
Fear of Peace
In today’s Sudan, every major actor dreads the prospect of peace. Burhan fears accountability for the coup and massacres; Hemedti fears prosecution for atrocities committed by the RSF; and the Islamists fear political extinction. Yet for ordinary Sudanese, war offers nothing but death, displacement, and despair. International mediation risks reproducing the same elite-driven power structures that ignited the conflict in the first place.
Reclaiming the Revolution
Sudan’s path forward depends not on generals or exiled politicians but on the reawakening of the youth movements that ignited the revolution of 2019. These grassroots activists — secular, plural, and uncompromised by corruption or blood — represent Sudan’s only authentic democratic force. Any sustainable peace must empower them to shape the country’s political future free from the militarized and ideological cliques that have long sabotaged its transformation.
For a nation that has endured so many betrayals, genuine hope lies not in another agreement but in restoring the moral clarity and courage that first brought millions into the streets. Only then can Sudan rise from war’s ashes into a republic of justice, accountability, and freedom.
