Al-Yurae-(AFP) – Eritrea on Friday rejected what it described as “provocative military displays” and a “hostile propaganda campaign” by Ethiopia, accusing Addis Ababa of fabricating claims that Asmara was colluding with a military faction opposed to it to launch a war. In recent days, rhetoric has escalated between the two neighboring countries, raising fears of growing security tensions in the Horn of Africa.
Eritrean Minister of Information Yemane Gebremeskel said that “the intensive propaganda campaign aimed at inciting expansionist tendencies has been accompanied by provocative military demonstrations,” condemning Ethiopia’s message to the United Nations, which he described as “a false deception.”
In its letter to the UN Secretary-General, Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry accused Asmara of colluding with a hardline faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) “to launch a war” against it, alleging that both parties were “funding, arming, and directing” armed groups in Ethiopia’s Amhara region to destabilize the country.
The message stated that “collusion between the Eritrean government and a hardline faction within the TPLF has become more evident in recent months,” accusing Eritrea of “reviving its old pattern of stirring conflicts whenever peace threatens its regional influence.”
Access to the Red Sea
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front is currently divided into two opposing wings: one led by Getachew Reda, who is allied with Ethiopia’s federal government, and another led by Debretsion Gebremichael, who opposes Addis Ababa and accuses it of reneging on the 2022 Pretoria Agreement.
This comes amid escalating military tensions in the Amhara region, where Ethiopian federal forces have carried out intensive drone airstrikes on the towns of Jarsa Bir and Sanka near Woldiya, saying they were targeting groups belonging to the anti-government “Fano” movement.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have reached a critical turning point, as underlying disputes extend beyond their shared border to include Addis Ababa’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea — an ambition it describes as its “right to regional economic integration.”
Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
The divisions among factions active in the Tigray region reflect the broader tension in Ethiopian–Eritrean relations. After years of war between the TPLF and Eritrea, multiple reports now suggest that Asmara has found in one of the TPLF’s hardline factions a potential ally in any future conflict with Addis Ababa.
In this context, Getachew Reda, leader of the TPLF faction aligned with the Ethiopian government, warned in July: “The foreseeable and disastrous consequences of this unholy alliance between the Eritrean regime and the reactionary faction within the Front are nothing less than a renewed declaration of war on our people. Every Tigrayan must reject this destructive path.”
During the same period, the Ethiopian government warned that the divided Tigray region was on the brink of renewed war, accusing the TPLF of refusing to participate in the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) process stipulated in the Pretoria Agreement.
A Local Factional Conflict Masking a Regional War
Ethiopian media at the time reported that forces allied with the TPLF were seeking to retake disputed territories along Tigray’s border with Amhara — such as Wolkait and Raya Alamata — which had been seized by Amhara forces allied with the federal government during the Tigray conflict.
Observers caution that while a full-scale regional war between the two countries remains unlikely, rekindling armed conflicts within northern Ethiopia as a proxy war between Asmara and Addis Ababa could plunge the region into a cycle of violence that would be extremely difficult to contain. Such a development, they warn, could draw in regional and international intervention and gradually lead to a scenario resembling the ongoing war in Sudan.
